Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios -- NFC

Here's a glimpse of the playoff picture in the NFC entering the regular season's final week. It's a little more muddled situation than the AFC, especially with the Bears' pulling out a win in Monday's game.

The New York Giants (12-3) have clinched the #1 seed with Sunday's victory over Carolina.
The NFC South champion (either Carolina or Atlanta) will be the #2 seed and have a first-round bye.

The Panthers (11-4) can secure the division with a win over New Orleans this weekend or if Atlanta (10-5) loses to St. Louis on Sunday. If the Falcons beat the Rams and Carolina loses, Atlanta gets the bye on the basis of a better conference record.

Minnesota (9-6) can clinch the NFC North by beating the Giants on Sunday or if Chicago (9-6) loses to Houston. The Vikings have the tiebreaker on the Bears by virtue of a better conference record (if both finish 10-6) or a better mark against common opponents (if both are 9-7).

NFC West champ Arizona (9-7) is locked into the #4 seed regardless of this weekend's play, as the Cardinals lost to the Vikings back in Week 15.

If the Panthers don't win the South, they will be no worse than a #5 seed. The Falcons can also clinch the first Wild Card with a victory on Sunday. However, if Atlanta loses and Dallas (9-6) beats Philadelphia, the Cowboys would be the #5 and the Falcons seeded sixth. Dallas would have a better conference record than Atlanta in that scenario.

The Cowboys will clinch a Wild Card berth if they beat the Eagles on Sunday, but are eliminated with a loss. Philadelphia (8-6-1) can still get the #6 seed with a win over Dallas combined with losses by both Tampa Bay (9-6) and either Chicago or Minnesota.

The Buccaneers need to beat Oakland this weekend and have the Eagles defeat the Cowboys to get in as the #6 seed. The Bears will make it as the final Wild Card (if Minnesota wins the Central) with a win on Sunday and losses by Tampa Bay and Dallas.

The Vikings cannot make the playoffs as a Wild Card if they lose to the Giants.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios -- AFC

Here's a brief look at how the playoffs will sort itself out in the AFC depending on the outcome of the Week 17 games:

Tennessee (13-2) has clinched the #1 seed with Sunday's victory over Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh (11-4) is locked into the #2 seed and will have a first-round bye.

The AFC East champion will be the #3 seed -- Miami (10-5) will clinch the division if it beats the Jets (9-6) on Sunday, as the Dolphins will win the tiebreaker with New England (10-5) on a better conference record.

The Patriots would win the East with a victory over Buffalo on Sunday and a Jets win over Miami. The Jets can still win the division if they beat Miami and New England loses to the Bills. That would bring about a three-way tie, with New York having the best head-to-head mark (the Jets will have swept the Dolphins) among the teams.

The winner of the Denver (8-7)-San Diego (7-8) game on Sunday will clinch the AFC West and the #4 seed. The Chargers would win the tiebreaker based on a better division record if both teams finish 8-8.

Indianapolis (11-4) locked itself into the #5 seed with Thursday's win over Jacksonville.
Baltimore (10-5) can clinch the #6 seed with a victory over the Jaguars on Sunday, or if New England loses.

The Patriots can still get the final wild card with a win on Sunday and a Baltimore loss, in the case that Miami beats the Jets. The Jets can also get the wild card with a win over the Dolphins and a Baltimore loss, in the case that New England wins the division.

Miami cannot make the playoffs if it loses on Sunday, as it will lose out to the Jets in a head-to-head tiebreaker.

Will update the NFC situation on Tuesday, following tonight's Bears-Packers matchup.

Friday, December 12, 2008

One man's Pro Bowl team -- NFC

Quarterback
Starter: Kurt Warner, Cardinals
Reserves: Drew Brees, Saints; Tony Romo, Cowboys
Apologies to: Aaron Rodgers, Packers

A tough call for the starting spot, but Warner gets the edge over Brees for his consistency and because the Cardinals have been the more successful team. Romo still ranks among the NFC leaders in many categories despite missing three games, and his value to the offense was underlined when he was out.

Running Back
Starter: Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Reserves: Clinton Portis, Redskins; Matt Forte, Bears
Apologies to: Michael Turner, Falcons; DeAngelo Willliams, Panthers; Brandon Jacobs, Giants

Peterson was the only easy choice here. Portis was a dominant player when healthy earlier in the year and is well-deserving, while Forte just makes the cut in a deep pool due to the rookie's talents as a receiver.

Fullback
Starter: Mike Sellers, Redskins
Apologies to: Madison Hedgecock, Giants; Brad Hoover, Panthers

One of the few choices that the Redskins faithful and I agree on. Sellers is a punishing lead blocker with a tad more versatility than the other candidates.

Wide Receiver
Starters: Anquan Boldin, Cardinals; Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
Reserves: Roddy White, Falcons; Steve Smith, Panthers
Apologies to: Greg Jennings, Packers

It's hard to leave Jennings off the list here, but how can you dispute the top four choices? Smith doesn't have quite the overall numbers as the rest of this group, but remember that he missed the first two games.

Tight End
Starter: Jason Witten, Cowboys
Reserve: Chris Cooley, Redskins

T.O.'s going to be even more jealous when Witten receives his fifth straight trip to Honolulu.

Offensive Tackle
Starters: Jordan Gross, Panthers; Jammal Brown, Saints
Reserve: Tyson Clabo, Falcons
Apologies to: Kareem McKenzie, Giants; Walter Jones, Seahawks

Gross has flawlessly handled a shift from the right to left side in the Panthers' rebound year, while Brown's protection skills are a big reason why Brees throws for 320 yards every week. The Falcons deserve at least one player from a line that's been sensational, and Clabo's been a mauler at right tackle who's held his own as a protector. Jones' streak of Pro Bowl trips may end due to an injury-plagued year and Seattle's horrendous team.

Guard
Starters: Steve Hutchinson, Vikings; Chris Snee, Giants
Reserve: Leonard Davis, Cowboys
Apologies to: Harvey Dahl, Falcons

With Shawn Andrews out of the picture, Snee should finally get a long-overdue selection. Hutchinson had another standout year paving the way for Peterson, while Davis was one of the few bright spots on an underachieving Dallas front wall.

Center
Starter: Matt Birk, Vikings
Reserve: Shaun O'Hara, Giants
Apologies to: Eric Heitmann, 49ers; Olin Kreutz, Bears

Birk continues to play at a high level and is worthy of a seventh career nod. O'Hara, the anchor of a Giants' line some consider the best in football, deserves to go too.

Defensive End
Starters: Justin Tuck, Giants; Julius Peppers, Panthers
Reserve: Jared Allen, Vikings
Apologies to: John Abraham, Falcons

Both Tuck and Peppers have been relentless for the NFC's two best teams. It's really hard to leave out Abraham, who's been sensational for the surprising Falcons, but Allen's been equally as good in his first year in Minnesota.

Defensive Tackle
Starters: Kevin Williams, Vikings; Jay Ratliff, Cowboys
Reserve: Pat Williams, Vikings
Apologies to: Fred Robbins, Giants; Tommie Harris, Bears

No team is harder to run up the middle against than the Vikings because of the two Williamses, and Kevin has excelled as a pass-rusher as well. So has Ratliff, one of the few Cowboys who can be considered overlooked.

Outside Linebacker
Starters: DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys; Lance Briggs, Bears
Reserve: Chad Greenway, Vikings
Apologies to: Karlos Dansby, Cardinals

Ware, who has a sack in all but one game this year, is a lock, while Briggs has been more of a factor than his more-heralded teammate Brian Urlacher. Flip a coin between Greenway and Dansby, both of whom have been real playmakers for their teams.

Inside Linebacker
Starter: Patrick Willis, 49ers
Reserve: Jon Beason, Panthers
Apologies to: Barrett Ruud, Buccaneers; Bradie James, Cowboys; London Fletcher, Redskins

One of the deepest spots in the conference, as Ruud, James and Fletcher have all made strong cases. I went with the two second-year studs that could be dominating this position for a long time.

Cornerback
Starter: Charles Woodson, Packers; Asante Samuel, Eagles
Reserve: Carlos Rogers, Redskins
Apologies to: Corey Webster, Giants; Antoine Winfield, Vikings

Woodson has been terrific despite playing through a turf-toe problem since September, while Samuel has lived up to the huge free-agent deal he signed with the Eagles in March. Both Rogers and Webster have had breakthrough campaigns as stoppers on excellent defenses.

Safety
Starters: Adrian Wilson, Cardinals; Nick Collins, Packers
Reserve: Quintin Mikell, Eagles
Apologies to: LaRon Landry, Redskins; Jermaine Phillips, Buccaneers; O.J. Atogwe, Rams

Collins goes as the most productive free safety in the league this season, although Atogwe has made a lot of plays on a horrible St. Louis defense. Mikell has supplanted the aging Brian Dawkins as Philadelphia's impact safety.

Kicker: Jason Hanson, Lions
Punter: Brad Maynard, Bears
Kick Returner: Clifton Smith, Buccaneers
Special Teamer: Chase Blackburn, Giants
Apologies to: Ryan Longwell, Vikings (K); Josh Brown, Rams (K); Donnie Jones, Rams (P); Allen Rossum, 49ers (KR)

The Lions actually have a deserving player in Hanson, who has nailed 19-of-20 three-pointers and is an awesome 7-of-7 from beyond 50 yards. Smith started the year on the practice squad but has scored two return touchdowns in just six games. Maynard has been a wizard at pinning opponents deep.

Most Selections: Vikings (7)
Shut Out: Seahawks, Rams

One man's Pro Bowl team -- AFC

With the rosters for this year's Pro Bowl to be announced on Tuesday, here's my take on who should be in and out. I would expect my teams to vary from the once released by the NFL, thanks to the tireless work of thousands of Washington Redskins fans.

It's nice to see Jason Taylor being rewarded for his sack back in Week 2, and Shaun Suisham being recognized for his league-leading nine missed field goals. But at least the Redskins are in first place in something, right?

Anyway, here goes the AFC version:

Quarterback
Starter: Philip Rivers, Chargers
Reserves: Chad Pennington, Dolphins; Peyton Manning, Colts
Apologies to: Jay Cutler, Broncos

Cutler's leading the conference in passing yards and is tough to leave off, but Pennington and Manning have been a little more consistent.


Running Back
Starter: Chris Johnson, Titans
Reserves: Steve Slaton, Texans; Thomas Jones, Jets
Apologies to: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars

No controversy here, with Jones and the two rookie sensations the top three rushers in the AFC by a large margin.

Fullback
Starter: Ahmard Hall, Titans
Apologies to: Le'Ron McClain, Ravens

McClain is having a great year but has spent most of his time as a lead back. Hall deserves recognition for his blocking, receiving ability and tremendous leadership.

Wide Receiver
Starters: Andre Johnson, Texans; Wes Welker, Patriots
Reserves: Brandon Marshall, Broncos; Reggie Wayne, Colts
Apologies to: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals

Johnson has been the best WR in football this year, while Welker may be the Patriots' MVP.

Tight End
Starter: Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs
Reserve: Antonio Gates, Chargers
Apologies to: Owen Daniels, Texans

Gonzalez is a no-brainer. Daniels' numbers are superior to those of Gates, but the latter's a better all-around player.

Offensive Tackle
Starters: Michael Roos, Titans; David Stewart, Titans
Reserve: Ryan Clady, Broncos
Apologies to: Joe Thomas, Browns; Ryan Harris, Broncos

The two Titan tackles have been rock-solid performers on the AFC's best offensive line. The rookie Clady should make the first of many trips to Hawaii.

Guard
Starters: Logan Mankins, Patriots; Alan Faneca, Jets
Reserve: Robert Gallery, Raiders
Apologies to: Jake Scott, Titans

Faneca has been as good as hoped for the Jets since signing a huge free-agent deal in March. Gallery, a colossal bust as a left tackle, has found his niche inside and quietly put forth a strong season.

Center
Starter: Kevin Mawae, Titans
Reserve: Nick Mangold, Jets
Apologies to: Jason Brown, Ravens; Samson Satele, Dolphins

The 37-year-old Mawae has been instrumental to the Titans' great success running the ball. Mangold has been a stalwart since entering the league three years ago and gets an overdue nod.

Defensive End
Starters: Mario Williams, Texans; Richard Seymour, Patriots
Reserve: Dwight Freeney, Colts
Apologies to: Aaron Smith, Steelers; Shaun Ellis, Jets

Seymour's been another savior for the Pats with possibly the best season of his decorated career, while Freeney is back to terrorizing quarterbacks after a couple of down years. Williams should have made it last year.

Defensive Tackle
Starters: Albert Haynesworth, Titans; Kris Jenkins, Jets
Reserve: Haloti Ngata, Ravens
Apologies to: Shaun Rogers, Browns; Jamal Williams, Chargers; Vince Wilfork, Patriots

The most important newcomer to the Jets this year wears #77, not #4. Ngata, an essential element to Baltimore's run-stopping prowess, gets a slight edge over Rogers, one of the few Cleveland players that hasn't underachieved.

Outside Linebacker
Starters: James Harrison, Steelers; Joey Porter, Dolphins
Reserve: Terrell Suggs, Ravens
Apologies to: LaMarr Woodley, Steelers; Keith Bulluck, Titans; Calvin Pace, Jets

Harrison has gone from key special-teamer to a possible Defensive Player of the Year in just two years since replacing the ex-Steeler Porter, who's played even bigger than his mouth.

Inside Linebacker
Starter: Ray Lewis, Ravens
Reserve: James Farrior, Steelers
Apologies to: D'Qwell Jackson, Browns

Lewis got to Honolulu the past couple of years on reputation, but the perennial participant has earned it this time around. Farrior's steady consistency sometimes gets overlooked on the league's best defense.

Cornerback
Starter: Nmandi Asomugha, Raiders; Cortland Finnegan, Titans
Reserve: Darrelle Revis, Jets
Apologies to: Ike Taylor, Steelers

Asomugha has supplanted the injured Champ Bailey as the conference's premier shutdown corner. Although the rest of the Jets' secondary can't cover anyone, Revis has blanketed receivers all year long.

Safety
Starters: Troy Polamalu, Steelers; Ed Reed, Ravens
Reserve: Yeremiah Bell, Dolphins
Apologies to: Chris Hope, Titans; Michael Griffin, Titans

The top two NFL icons are as easy a choice as you'll find. Bell gets the nod as one of the difference-makers of a Miami defense that's been terrific this year.

Kicker: Rob Bironas, Titans
Punter: Shane Lechler, Raiders
Kick Returner: Leon Washington, Jets
Special Teamer: Anthony Madison, Steelers
Apologies to: Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (K); Mike Scifres, Chargers (P); Leodis McKelvin, Bills (KR); Josh Cribbs, Browns (KR)

Bironas is an excellent 14-of-17 from beyond 40 yards and has been strong on kickoffs, while Lechler is averaging nearly 50 yards per punt. Washington's excellence on both kickoffs and punts gives him a slight edge over a strong field of returners. The Steelers have the AFC's best coverage units, and Madison was the team's designated player on the ballot.

Most Selections: Titans (8)
Shut Out: Bills, Bengals, Browns, Jaguars


Monday, December 8, 2008

A look back...and a look ahead

A few observations from Sunday's games of Week 14 of the NFL:

*Oh, those Detroit Lions. For an instant, it appeared as if the still-winless club's flirtation with a dubious place in history may have been coming to an end. Order was restored during the fourth quarter of yesterday's battle with rival Minnesota, however, and the Vikings pulled out a 20-16 win to send the Lions to an 0-13 mark. With a road date with red-hot Indianapolis next weekend, Detroit seems assured of becoming the first team since the infamous New Orleans 'Aint's' of 1980 to lose their first 14 games of a season. The 1976 Buccaneers are the only team of the modern era to go winless throughout a year, losing every game of a then 14-game slate.

Here's a great note courtesy of STATS, Inc. The Lions are 31-94 since 2001, the worst winning percentage in the NFL (.248) over an eight-season span since 1950.

*The initial word on the injury to Vikings quarterback Gus Frerotte, who sat out the entire second half of the Detroit game, was that the veteran journeyman suffered a lower back bruise. It's too early to say whether he'll be ready for this week's key matchup at Arizona, although maligned backup Tarvaris Jackson was sharp in leading Minnesota's comeback win yesterday. Then again, he was facing the Lions.

*There were a few notable injuries to running backs yesterday as well, with San Francisco standout Frank Gore's ankle sprain the most significant of the lot. The workhorse back's ailment could be of the high-ankle variety, which would sideline Gore for at least a couple of weeks. Denver's Peyton Hillis is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season after pulling his hamstring in Sunday's win over Kansas City, although there's a chance the versatile rookie could return when the AFC West-leading Broncos are in the playoffs. Selvin Young, who's had one carry since Week 6 due to a lingering groin injury, will likely return to the front of the line in Denver's running-back carousel until then. Lastly, Giants bulldozer Brandon Jacobs sat out the fourth quarter of Sunday's loss to the inspired Philadelphia Eagles after apparently aggravating a mild knee sprain to his left knee, although early indications say it's nothing too serious.

*Mike Singletary is making it an easy choice for 49ers ownership to remove the interim tag from his head coaching label. San Francisco improved to a respectable 3-3 since the Hall of Fame linebacker replaced Mike Nolan at midseason with Sunday's 24-14 upset over the erratic New York Jets, while Singletary's decision to elevate Shaun Hill to the starting quarterback position has clearly turned out to be a wise move. The Niners' impressive improvement has almost made us all forget about Mr. Intensity's amusing head coaching debut back in late October, when he reportedly dropped his pants at halftime of a loss to Seattle and did his best audition for a Coors Light commercial during the postgame press conference.

Week 15 Games to Watch

New Orleans (7-6) at Chicago (7-6), Thursday: For all intensive purposes, an elimination game in the NFC.

N.Y. Giants (11-2) at Dallas (8-5): This Sunday night showdown between NFC East heavyweights would have loomed even larger had the Cowboys been able to hold on against Pittsburgh yesterday. It's still a huge game for Dallas and now has increased importance for the Giants, who are dealing with the most tumultuous period of their season.

Tampa Bay (9-3) at Atlanta (8-5): Any time two members of the competitive NFC South get together, it's a big deal.

Minnesota (8-5) at Arizona (8-5): Could decide who gets the #3 seed in the NFC Playoffs.

Pittsburgh (10-3) at Baltimore (9-4): I'll be attending this one and frankly, I can't wait until Sunday. With two of the NFL's premier defenses, expected cold weather and a ton on the line, it'll be a playoff-like atmosphere at M&T Bank Stadium. The Steelers will clinch the AFC North with a win, but the division race is wide-open should the surging Ravens prevail.

Denver (8-5) at Carolina (9-3): The stakes are obviously higher for the Panthers, who are in a dogfight in the NFC South while the Broncos have virtually sewn up the AFC West. The Broncos have been terrors on the road as of late, having notched eye-opening wins at Atlanta and the Jets over the past month.


Sunday, December 7, 2008

What to look for -- Week 14

The playoff picture should become at least a little bit clearer at the end of Sunday's play, with a number of teams having the opportunity to secure postseason spots this afternoon.

The Giants, Titans and Cardinals all can clinch their respective divisions with victories today. New York and Tennessee also can sew up first-round byes with some help -- the Giants need to beat Philadelphia and have Dallas lose at Pittsburgh, while the Titans get theirs with a win over battered Cleveland coupled with a Jets' loss at San Francisco.

Pittsburgh can also clinch a playoff berth if it defeats Dallas and both Miami and New England lose today.

For those who haven't heard, the Cowboys won't have factor back Marion Barber available for their marquee matchup with the Steelers. With the forecast calling for single-digit wind chills and gusts of up to 20 mph at Heinz Field, that's a significant blow to a Dallas club that's going up against the NFL's top defense.