Friday, September 26, 2008

I love me some underdogs

We're not big proponents of gambling on NFL games, first because it's illegal in most places and second because the talent level from team-to-team is so close that it's difficult to wager in an educated way. Anyone who saw the Bucs erase that 24-14 Bears lead last week knows how temporary leads, even big ones, can be in this league.

That said, I do participate in The Sports Network's "Pigskin Prognosticators" competition, so I pay some attention to the weekly Vegas line on each game. For amusement purposes only, of course.

And some of the lines I saw this week were pretty absurd, prompting me to circle the underdog in 10 of the 13 games on my sheet. Here's some stuff that caught my attention:

Houston +7.5 at Jacksonville - I know the Jaguars beat the Colts last week and rushed for a lot of yards, but this is still an injury-riddled roster and I refuse to believe they'll be able to win a lot of games decisively. The Texans haven't looked great in 2008, but they've played two road games against physical defenses (Pittsburgh and Tennessee) and are going to come out of their shell at some point. This one will be close, and I won't be shocked to see the Texans (7-5 against the Jaguars all-time) win it.

San Francisco +5.5 at New Orleans - The Saints must be coasting off reputation here, both theirs and that of the 49ers. Two of the key cogs in the New Orleans offensive machine - Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey - are both out, and an already-suspect defense has major injury problems in the secondary. If J.T. O'Sullivan (a one-time Saint) has the time to throw that he should, the 49ers are going to score some points and keep this one interesting. This is a field goal game in my opinion.

St. Louis +8.5 vs. Buffalo - Yes, the Rams have been terrible with a capital T, and have been blown out in three straight games. But no team in NFL history has been blown out in 100 percent of their games, and at some point St. Louis is going to catch a lucky break that allows them to stay in a contest or two. The Bills are a great story and all, but they should have lost to a poor Raiders team at home last week and are hardly a shoo-in to win by two scores on the road.

Washington +11 at Dallas - Huh? The Redskins are on a two-game winning streak after beating the Saints and Cardinals, two teams that still harbor realistic playoff aspirations. The defense they'll bring to Dallas is nearly identical to last year's generally solid unit, and I simply don't see them allowing the Cowboys, their hated division rival, to run up and down the field. I also think Jason Campbell is good enough to keep Washington within striking distance, at the very least.

Pittsburgh +8 vs. Baltimore - This line has everything to do with Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, who a lot of folks are expecting to be flustered in his first road game, which is also a primetime contest to be played out before a national television audience. And I don't discount that obstacle, but the Ravens are 2-0 because they have been able to run the ball and play good defense, two factors that have mitigated any minor struggles Flacco has experienced. Pittsburgh is banged up defensively and will also be without Willie Parker, so I think Baltimore will be able to hold the nation's interest here.

For the record, the three favorites I like out of 13 are the Jets (-1 vs. Arizona), the Chargers (-7.5 at Oakland), and the Eagles (-3.5 at Chicago).

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